Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for North Carolina

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for North Carolina in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for North Carolina in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.2% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.835) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.042).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6578 8.56%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5477 -1.69%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1624 -2.51%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0574 -0.45%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0309 -1.85%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0509 0.41%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0115 -0.27%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.5616 4.84%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0015 -0.02%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0450 0.23%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0204 -0.24%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5275 -6.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2035 -2.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0361 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0857 -0.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0791 1.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0222 -0.32%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3127 6.14%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1763 2.23%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0359 -0.65%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0720 2.09%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0028 -0.01%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1594 -1.50%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5432 0.44%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0274 -0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0746 1.16%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0052 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7071 13.36%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0613 0.10%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1018 -0.15%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0161 0.22%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.3351 2.08%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0007 0.03%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0022 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0113 -0.02%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0043 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9750 2.15%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 250.0000 -4.58%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0067 1.42%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0511 4.40%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1071 2.03%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0177 -9.46%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0536 -26.10%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1459 54.83%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2266 18.66%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1154 -10.30%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0255 11.56%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0553 12.24%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0395 2.69%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,880 for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41812) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35932).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6738 -$1,914
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5561 -$479
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1572 -$494
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0521 -$276
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0216 -$131
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0521 $12
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0115 -$51
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.5711 -$1,328
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0016 -$10
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0456 -$123
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0207 $145
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5231 $189
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2097 $173
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0393 -$52
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0871 $491
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0797 $323
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0224 $191
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3524 $340
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1815 $658
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0207 -$21
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0601 -$81
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0027 -$12
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1668 $24
Low Income -332.4067 0.5307 -$176
Homeless -446.4262 0.0218 -$10
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0601 $121
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0049 -$10
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7655 $618
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4233.2450 $1,546
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0497 $100
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1018 $70
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0147 -$38
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.3467 $317
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0003 $4
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0019 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0057 -$34
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0046 $4
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9754 -$200
Median Days in Program 3.2489 252.0000 $819
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0067 $161
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0511 $1,650
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1071 $4,202
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0177 -$855
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0536 $219
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1459 $14,119
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2266 $12,728
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1154 $6,656
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0255 $275
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0553 $2,192
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0395 -$241

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 42.9% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.511) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.082).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6958 -25.15%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5884 30.70%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1244 -0.87%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0343 -3.43%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0149 4.35%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0569 -8.22%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0112 2.38%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.5109 -28.97%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0458 3.91%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0220 4.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4694 -5.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2776 -5.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0434 0.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0868 -7.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0802 -1.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0170 3.13%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4904 17.89%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.3759 -11.45%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0350 -0.91%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0522 1.31%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0010 0.09%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1539 3.28%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0481 3.76%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7201 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0590 0.38%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0094 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4843 -6.28%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0125 0.61%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0029 -0.08%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9885 7.23%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 172.0000 6.10%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 114.0000 -2.78%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1419 -0.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0067 6.71%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0511 45.59%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1071 129.83%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0177 -77.76%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0536 170.17%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1459 110.55%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2266 225.01%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1154 29.79%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0255 83.90%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0553 -0.79%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0395 -53.52%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.0% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.901) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.651).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5303 3.16%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4919 0.93%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2761 -0.47%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0974 1.03%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0538 -1.03%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0667 0.79%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0201 -0.58%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.4953 -1.78%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0030 0.26%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0342 -0.34%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0192 -0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3654 -0.95%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2034 -3.95%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0363 -0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1231 -1.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1748 -2.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0722 -0.87%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0556 0.59%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.1009 -0.26%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0218 -0.11%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0850 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0004 -0.01%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0735 0.33%
Low Income -0.0518 0.2838 -1.47%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0124 0.04%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0291 1.10%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0141 -0.32%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7432 8.41%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0615 0.35%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.4222 0.88%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0607 0.45%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1808 0.90%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0009 -0.04%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0004 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0030 0.24%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0009 -0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9842 -5.04%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 146.0000 0.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0067 -1.35%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0511 -2.38%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1071 -18.27%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0177 -17.56%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0536 -33.66%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1459 -52.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2266 -45.20%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1154 -32.92%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0255 7.77%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0553 6.80%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0395 1.63%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,483 for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37031) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29548).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5415 -$1,030
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4949 $552
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2840 -$36
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0954 -$203
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0466 -$116
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0612 -$52
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0202 -$95
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.5146 -$791
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0022 -$7
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0314 -$111
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0163 -$60
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3687 -$516
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1981 -$377
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0404 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1229 $188
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1768 $207
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0690 $149
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0617 $105
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0898 $340
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0157 $4
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0831 $120
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0006 -$2
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0746 -$59
Low Income -538.7097 0.2851 -$154
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0123 $97
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0292 $53
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0146 $3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.7974 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7846.1500 $719
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0578 $78
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.4534 $31
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0589 -$147
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1874 $33
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0011 $7
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0006 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0017 -$4
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0011 -$5
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9899 -$399
Median Days in Program 2.2222 148.0000 $329
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0067 -$182
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0511 $1,871
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1071 $5,053
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0177 -$4,617
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0536 $4,608
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1459 $13,866
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2266 $11,597
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1154 $5,076
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0255 -$116
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0553 $1,231
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0395 -$229

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 51.0% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.592) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.083).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5271 -7.95%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5395 -3.53%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2197 5.30%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0779 3.57%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0346 3.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0666 -4.42%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0168 -0.90%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.4264 -14.04%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0357 9.45%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0211 0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4194 -8.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2327 -5.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0406 -1.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0952 2.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1407 -1.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0476 -2.04%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1439 -0.31%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1320 -3.49%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0276 -4.00%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0774 -7.15%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0027 0.12%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0568 2.10%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0363 1.70%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.6293 1.80%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0925 3.59%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0390 1.39%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.3528 -2.17%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0070 -0.31%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9935 -9.57%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 178.0000 -5.72%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 101.0000 -2.76%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1585 2.57%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0067 -5.41%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0511 22.72%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1071 105.54%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0177 -104.14%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0536 65.43%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1459 234.28%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2266 162.34%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1154 17.45%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0255 166.72%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0553 -15.74%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0395 -42.74%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.1% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.053) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.764).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.6058 3.60%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0263 0.32%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2129 -3.06%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2989 -6.14%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2227 0.23%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0863 -0.54%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0101 0.20%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.6176 -2.56%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0047 -0.25%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0425 -1.42%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0414 0.62%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4427 3.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0347 -1.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0040 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0276 1.36%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1614 4.43%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2129 0.76%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0677 -0.32%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0054 -0.08%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7827 2.93%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0327 -0.66%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1001 0.64%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0206 -0.02%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2402 -1.72%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5168 1.81%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0559 -0.48%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0121 -0.05%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.4609 2.04%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0051 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0101 0.08%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0057 -0.02%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0165 0.06%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.1894 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.9245 1.37%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 311.0000 -1.25%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0067 -4.55%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0511 -9.60%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1071 -14.57%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0177 -12.95%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0536 -11.46%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1459 -37.30%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2266 0.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1154 -4.55%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0255 -27.55%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0553 18.24%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0395 -5.87%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,968 for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14309) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11341).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.6249 -$1,173.21
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0209 -$1.93
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1876 -$245.53
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3008 -$320.77
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2357 $153.06
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0899 $172.01
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0068 $4.42
Race: Black -886.3703 0.6220 -$551.29
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0058 -$19.76
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0398 -$7.35
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0403 $37.63
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4752 $657.67
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0437 -$36.22
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0053 $0.93
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0330 $220.47
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1963 $120.49
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2002 $109.35
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0564 -$27.91
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0058 $14.32
Low Income -305.7985 0.7784 -$238.04
Homeless 983.9044 0.0311 $30.60
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0909 -$116.73
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0175 $17.66
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2638 $225.46
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5063 -$143.53
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0496 -$31.24
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0151 -$6.97
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.4825 $77.77
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0049 -$0.89
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0083 -$13.70
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0058 -$3.15
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0209 $2.18
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2007 -$0.87
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.9300 -$25.92
Median Days in Program 0.5942 313.0000 $185.98
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0067 -$21.25
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0511 $561.34
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1071 $2,308.79
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0177 -$983.97
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0536 $2,403.47
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1459 $2,074.86
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2266 $4,616.84
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1154 $818.09
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0255 $1,455.59
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0553 $2,408.42
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0395 -$398.44

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 41.4% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.897) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.484).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.6085 -16.78%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0301 -2.44%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2959 -26.70%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2965 -20.75%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1756 -28.81%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1110 -0.19%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0133 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.5357 0.23%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0331 -0.52%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0345 6.81%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3642 -9.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0256 2.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0044 -0.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0106 2.01%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2761 0.61%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5490 10.85%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0058 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.5395 -3.84%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0031 0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0167 0.93%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0202 -1.79%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.9539 -4.80%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 215.0000 -7.02%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0994 -3.42%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0067 5.11%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0511 48.88%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1071 62.45%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0177 -75.95%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0536 -76.41%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1459 211.25%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2266 160.08%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1154 72.70%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0255 129.77%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0553 -40.57%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0395 -4.61%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.8% for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.239) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.511).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4971 3.98%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4748 5.15%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1998 -1.72%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0841 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0775 -0.49%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0583 1.36%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0102 -0.24%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.5114 -8.23%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0024 0.24%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0287 -0.88%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0140 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4454 -0.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1767 0.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0288 -0.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0753 2.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1043 -7.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0348 -1.83%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1728 1.49%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0499 -0.45%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0291 -1.04%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0614 1.33%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0002 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0374 0.76%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1089 1.01%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0075 -0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0374 0.69%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0031 -0.07%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7733 24.54%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0201 -0.31%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.3328 -1.28%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0099 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0187 -0.19%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 -0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0001 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0024 0.26%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0010 -0.06%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 36.0000 -0.99%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0067 1.13%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0511 7.87%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1071 10.84%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0177 -0.82%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0536 15.90%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1459 13.76%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2266 29.08%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1154 6.83%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0255 9.96%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0553 9.40%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0395 1.36%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,105 for North Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39774) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34669).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.5100 -$1,415
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4878 $745
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2028 $45
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0804 $139
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0586 $234
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0557 $84
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0096 -$12
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.5281 -$1,546
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0026 -$6
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0272 -$151
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0139 $148
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4527 -$799
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1818 -$396
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0298 -$65
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0772 $162
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1074 $8
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0343 -$172
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2017 $92
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0506 -$58
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0216 -$110
Veteran -913.8967 0.0559 -$51
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0002 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0393 $26
Low Income 634.4633 0.1049 $67
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0061 -$21
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0302 $58
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0029 -$32
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8409 -$185
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5527.2150 $1,443
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0142 $11
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.3390 $154
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0099 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0199 -$13
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 -$0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0001 -$0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0015 $16
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0010 $2
Median Days in Program 0.8717 36.0000 $31
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0067 $248
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0511 $2,183
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1071 $5,108
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0177 $201
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0536 $3,359
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1459 $9,906
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2266 $11,669
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1154 $4,965
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0255 $1,063
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0553 $2,839
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0395 -$201

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x